This is an overview of the Canadian farm equipment market for the rest of 2023 and early 2024, highlighting the trends to watch moving forward.
New farm equipment sale projections
New farm equipment sales are projected to record mixed performance for the remainder of 2023 and 2024, as higher interest rates, elevated equipment prices and a decline in commodity prices impact purchasing decisions (Table 1). Purchasing decisions reflect a more cautious environment due to challenges in the livestock sector due to the drought in Western Canada and tighter revenues for hog and dairy sectors in Eastern Canada. Sales of both 4WD tractors and implement manufacturers (e.g., air drills) faced delivery issues and low inventory levels throughout 2023, which are driving part of the increase in our 2024 projections.
Table 1: Equipment sales growth
|
EQUIPMENT TYPE |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|
4WD tractor |
6.0% |
22.0% |
6.4% |
|
Agricultural implements |
10.3% |
28.1% |
8.4% |
|
Combines |
10.9% |
17.5% |
-15.2% |
|
100+ HP tractors |
0.0% |
-4.6% |
-15.4% |
|
40 – 100 HP tractors |
-1.0% |
-8.6% |
-2.1% |
|
< 40 HP tractors |
-10.0% |
-16.2% |
-2.2% |
Source: Association of Equipment Manufacturers, Statistics Canada, and FCC Calculations
Trends to watch in 2024
- Inflation and interest rates
Inflationary price pressures remain persistent despite recent economic weakness, meaning interest rates will likely stay higher for longer, which may alter equipment replacement cycles. That has impacted farm equipment sale trends as producers have delayed purchase decisions until interest rates stabilize or fall.
- The age of Canadian farm equipment
The strong sales during the 2008 – 2014 period are early indications that the 4WD tractor, 100+ HP tractor and combine fleet is starting to age (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Proxy age of new farm equipment replacement cycle
While replacement cycles can be altered, and older equipment can be serviced, a slowdown in new equipment sales could be
short-lived. Sales could improve if interest rates decline and producers move to upgrade their aging fleet.
The average age of used equipment has also trended higher for both 4WD tractors and air drills compared to the past several years. The close sales relationship between 4WD tractors and air drills is less prevalent due to tight inventory levels and reduced trades of newer units. However, recent stronger trades of air drills have started to reverse this trend. The disconnect between the ages of 4WD tractors and seeding units will be interesting to watch in 2024.
- Commodity prices and farm revenue
Farm revenue is the main driver of equipment sales. While commodity prices have come down from their 2022 highs, record-high crop receipts in 2022 and the first half of 2023 have placed many Canadian farmers in a strong financial position to absorb rising interest rates and equipment prices.
For additional forecasts and commentary, read our full 2024 equipment outlook at fcc.ca/Economics
Article Written by Leigh Anderson, Senior Economist
